New data from the United Nations reveals that India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country by mid-2023. The data estimates India’s population will reach 1.43 billion, compared to China’s 1.42 billion, meaning India will have 2.9 million more people than China.
However, this estimate is subject to limitations, as there has been no census in India since 2011. Moreover, the UN’s estimate does not include the population of China’s two Special Administrative Regions, Hong Kong and Macau, nor Taiwan.
Experts have noted that both China and India have seen declines in fertility rates, which have reduced the growth of their populations.
In China, the population started declining last year despite the country abandoning its one-child policy in 2016 and encouraging couples to have more children. In India, fertility rates have fallen significantly in recent decades, from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to 2.2 births per woman today.